How your FIRE number and date are calculated
Your FIRE number is last calendar year's spending times your multiplier (25x by default, the 4% rule). Your Freedom Date is the first point where your projected portfolio reaches that number.
The FIRE number
FIRE target = annual spending × multiplier
- Annual spending is your total spending for the last full calendar year (January to December), not the last 12 months. It comes from the Summary page and leaves out your Income and Savings category groups. Turn on Custom Annual Spend to use a different figure.
- Multiplier is the Withdrawal Rate slider, from 23x to 35x in steps of 0.5. The default is 25x.
- The matching withdrawal rate is 100 ÷ multiplier: 25x is a 4.00% withdrawal, 28.5x is about 3.5%, 33x about 3%.
Example: you spent $60,000 last year. At 25x your target is $60,000 × 25 = $1,500,000. Slide to 28.5x and it becomes $1,710,000.
A higher multiplier is more cautious. The hint under the slider explains the trade-off: up to 25x assumes mostly tax-free money such as Roth accounts, 25x to 27x is balanced, up to 30x is conservative for mostly pre-tax accounts, and above 30x is very conservative.
If you would rather pick the number yourself, turn on Custom FI Target in Spending & Target and type it in. That option is available in Simple Mode (with Inflation-Adjusted Target off).
What the tax rate does (and does not) change
The Tax Planning slider (0 to 40%, default 15%) does not change your FIRE number. It changes how fast the money runs down after you stop working, because every withdrawal is grossed up for tax:
Gross withdrawal = spending ÷ (1 − tax rate)
- To spend $60,000 at a 15% rate you withdraw $60,000 ÷ 0.85 = $70,588.
Want the tax reflected in the target itself? Raise the multiplier instead. That is what the slider hints are for.
Simple Mode or inflation-adjusted
- Simple Mode (default)
- The target stays fixed at today's figure, for example $1,500,000 every year.
- Inflation-Adjusted Target
- The target rises each year with your inflation rate (3% by default), so it keeps its buying power. Loan payments are handled separately: when a loan is due to be paid off, its payments drop out of your spending and the target steps down that year.
How the projection works
FIYR steps forward one year at a time, starting from the assets you included:
- Each included asset grows by its own yearly return. That is the account's historical return, limited to between −50% and +50%, or your Manual rate. A financed home grows on its full value while its mortgage is paid down.
- Before your Freedom Date, the year's savings are added: your income × your savings rate, plus any loan payments freed up by loans already paid off.
- Your income then rises by Income Growth (5% by default), so next year's savings are a little bigger.
- Once the balance reaches the target, contributions stop and each year withdraws your spending, raised for inflation and grossed up for tax, less any Social Security or freed-up loan payments.
- If you turned on Include Retirement Age, contributions stop at that age and withdrawals begin, even if you have not reached the target.
Example: $400,000 invested at 7%, saving $40,000 a year. Year one grows by $28,000, then $40,000 is added, ending at $468,000. Year two starts from there with $42,000 of savings (5% more), and so on.
From the crossing year to a date
Your Freedom Date comes from the first year the projected balance is at or above the target. FIYR then estimates how far into that year the line crosses, by drawing a straight line between the year before and the crossing year (or from today's balance, when the crossing is in the first projected year). That fraction of a year is added on, and the date is today plus that many years (at 365.25 days a year). Your FIRE age is your exact age today plus the same number of years.
What-if lines on the chart
- Show Additional Annual ROI redraws the projection with every asset's return raised (or lowered) by the slider amount, from −20% to +20%. The default is +5%.
- Extra Monthly Savings and Extra Savings Rate draw a scenario line with more saved each month or a higher savings rate, so you can see how much sooner you would get there.
Common questions
Does FIRE use the last 12 months of spending?
No. It uses the last full calendar year, January to December, from the Summary page. Turn on Custom Annual Spend to use a different number.
Does the tax rate change my FIRE number?
No. The tax rate only grosses up withdrawals after your Freedom Date, so the money runs down faster on the chart. To build tax into the target, raise the multiplier.
Why is a return marked with a warning sign?
The account's historical return is outside -50% to +50%, usually because it has very little history. Turn on Manual for that asset and enter the return you expect.
Are the returns adjusted for inflation?
No. The FIRE page uses nominal returns. Inflation is applied to the target only if you turn on Inflation-Adjusted Target, and always to withdrawals.
What does the 25x rule mean?
Saving 25 times your yearly spending means a 4% withdrawal covers a year. Each multiplier maps to a withdrawal rate of 100 divided by the multiplier.
Still stuck?
Email us. A real person who builds FIYR reads every message.